Is Israel Really Ready to Withdraw from Gaza?

The announcement of a disarmament agreement between Hamas and the US has sent shockwaves through the Israeli government, with many politicians questioning whether Israel is truly ready to withdraw from the Gaza Strip. Behind the headlines lies a complex web of politics and power struggles that threaten to upend Netanyahu’s chances in the upcoming elections.

For months, Israeli politicians have been caught between their hardline stance on Gaza and the need to appease international pressure to ease the humanitarian crisis. Recent polls showing 82% of Jewish Israelis support expelling Palestinians from Gaza underscore the depth of this divide. Yet, despite these sentiments, Netanyahu’s calculations suggest that a withdrawal is not off the table – but rather, it’s a calculated risk driven by his desire to win re-election.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s predicament is one of politics over principle. With corruption charges hanging over his head and opposition leaders gaining ground in the polls, the prime minister knows maintaining unity within his far-right coalition is crucial for staying ahead. However, this coalition comes with its own set of constraints: many members have repeatedly threatened to bring down the government if Hamas’s military-political power isn’t dismantled.

The US has been pushing for a comprehensive deal addressing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza while meeting Israel’s security concerns. But Israeli politicians are quick to condemn the disarmament agreement as “unacceptable” or even advocate for ethnic cleansing, leaving Netanyahu with a daunting task: balancing his US allies’ expectations and satisfying his hardline coalition partners.

The stakes are high for Netanyahu. A withdrawal from Gaza would satisfy international pressure and demonstrate a willingness to take risks in pursuit of peace – an essential quality for any prime minister seeking re-election. However, this move could come at the cost of electoral suicide: many Israelis still harbor animosity towards Palestinians in Gaza, and any perceived concession could erode Netanyahu’s base.

One possible way out for Netanyahu lies in symbolic gestures rather than concrete actions. By withdrawing back to its positions as part of the October 2025 ceasefire agreement, Israel can create an illusion of progress without relinquishing control over Gaza. This tactic would allow Netanyahu to appease his US allies while maintaining a façade of strength for his hardline coalition partners.

However, this maneuvering comes with risks. Sidestepping the disarmament agreement could anger Trump and further alienate his US allies – not to mention jeopardizing any chance at forming a stable government in the aftermath of elections. As Dov Waxman notes, Netanyahu’s predicament is one of politics over principle: “He will not want to be seen by Trump and the Americans as undermining any possible moves towards implementing this agreement.”

The coming weeks will be crucial for Netanyahu’s fortunes. Will he opt for a symbolic withdrawal, placating his US allies while maintaining the status quo in Gaza? Or will he choose to prioritize his hardline coalition partners, risking electoral defeat and further entrenching Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian enclave? The world watches with bated breath as Netanyahu navigates this treacherous landscape – but one thing is clear: the future of Gaza hangs precariously in the balance.