Australia, Vietnam Boost Ties in Hedge Against China in a World ‘Becoming More Uncertain’

The recent visit of Vietnamese President To Lam to Canberra has highlighted the deepening ties between Australia and Vietnam. These two countries are driven by a shared concern about China’s assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region.

Their relationship is not merely a response to Beijing’s growing military clout, but also reflects a more profound shift in regional dynamics. As tensions between Washington and Beijing continue to escalate, both Australia and Vietnam are seeking to hedge their bets by strengthening ties with each other.

By diversifying their relationships and deepening cooperation on critical issues like supply chains, energy, and technology, these two countries are creating a safety net against the rising risks of the US-China rivalry. This pragmatic approach acknowledges that in an increasingly uncertain world, no single power can guarantee security or economic stability.

Trade between Australia and Vietnam has grown rapidly since 2020, with bilateral trade more than doubling. Australian exports of iron ore, coal, and education services have driven this growth, as well as Vietnamese manufactured goods like telephones and batteries. This economic interdependence reflects a shared interest in maintaining open and reliable supply chains.

Some analysts have noted that Australia’s US alliance and Vietnam’s non-alignment may limit the depth of their security cooperation. However, these countries are not seeking to replicate the security arrangements of other regional partners. Instead, they are opting for a more nuanced approach that balances their respective national interests with the need for collective security in the region.

To Lam’s visit and the subsequent agreements signed during his trip demonstrate this calculated approach. The new deal on maritime security and disaster relief reflects a shared concern about China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. Similarly, expanded cooperation on technology and e-commerce is a pragmatic response to the growing importance of these sectors in regional trade.

The implications of this development are far-reaching. As Australia and Vietnam continue to deepen their ties, they will inevitably draw Washington into their orbit. This may not necessarily lead to a formal security alliance, but it will certainly put pressure on Beijing to reconsider its assertive posture in the region.

Furthermore, this new axis of cooperation will provide a boost to regional institutions like ASEAN and the Quad, which are struggling to maintain relevance in an era of great power competition. As Australia and Vietnam navigate their relationship, they must also be mindful of the limitations imposed by their respective national interests.

While their shared concerns about China’s assertiveness may create common ground, their divergent strategic priorities will inevitably lead to disagreements. The challenge for Canberra and Hanoi is to balance these competing demands while maintaining the momentum of their bilateral relationship.

Ultimately, the blossoming ties between Australia and Vietnam reflect a more profound shift in regional dynamics – one driven by the imperatives of economic interdependence and collective security. As the world becomes increasingly uncertain, these two countries are demonstrating that even in an era of great power competition, there is still room for cooperation and pragmatism to prevail.